Not enough growth in inventory means spring market sales slow

A total of 637 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this April, 22.7 per cent fewer than the 824 properties sold in April 2022 but an 8 per cent increase from March 2023. Sales of condominiums were down 21.8 per cent from April 2022 with 205 units sold. Sales of single family homes decreased 19.4 per cent from April 2022 with 325 sold.

“Sales numbers for this April are more moderate than the higher levels we’ve seen in recent years,” said Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Graden Sol. “We are in a familiar market pattern, where the majority of sales for the year occur in the spring. While we’ve seen an increase in sales over the previous month, we’re not expecting a return to record setting activity. Our inventory levels continue to be very low and new properties are slow to come onto market. More inventory is needed to balance the supply against spring demand. The good news is that prices have stabilized for now. If listings do not pick up over this season, there is a risk that the price stabilization could turn and we could see prices increase.”

There were 2,043 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of April 2023, an increase of 3.7 per cent compared to the previous month of March and an 49.7 per cent increase from the 1,365 active listings for sale at the end of April 2022.

"Though we are seeing multiple offers in our market, these situations are dependent on a number of factors including price, competition, area, condition of home, etc.,” adds Sol. “This means sellers should seek clarity on what to expect during their transaction as this spring market continues to evolve. Overall, consumer confidence in the market has returned. Accurately priced homes are selling quickly and close to list price. Your REALTOR® can help you understand the pulse of the market should you be contemplating buying or selling this spring.”

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in April 2022 was $1,424,900. The benchmark value for the same home in April 2023 decreased by 11.3 per cent to $1,264,200, which is up from March’s value of $1,236,200. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in April 2022 was $630,200, while the benchmark value for the same condominium in April 2023 decreased by 10.3 per cent to $565,000, which is up from the March value of $560,300.

Early spring market reflects consumer confidence and growing demand

A total of 590 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this March, 29.2 per cent fewer than the 833 properties sold in March 2022 but a 28.3 per cent increase from February 2023. Sales of condominiums were down 29.4 per cent from March 2022 with 197 units sold. Sales of single family homes decreased 31.8 per cent from March 2022 with 281 sold.

“We’ve seen our sales numbers this month almost double from January,” said Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Graden Sol. “As we move further into spring, we expect that the return to confidence we’ve seen in the market will continue. What we can’t predict is what the overall impact on pricing will be if we continue to see quite low inventory across our community. Some pockets of our market are busier than others - by working with your REALTOR® you can better understand the market you are in.”

There were 1,970 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of March 2023, an increase of 8.9 per cent compared to the previous month of February and an 85.3 per cent increase from the 1,063 active listings for sale at the end of March 2022.

“Demand is recovering,” adds Sol. “Compared to the end of 2022, prices have firmed up and interest rates have become normalized. Consumers are more active, and we are seeing quite a few multiple offers on well-priced properties. Inventory continues to trend lower than long term averages. As our spring market continues to strengthen, we may start to experience some upward pressure on pricing again. We have been talking about the need for supply to help moderate pricing for a long time. Premier Eby’s announcement this week about the provincial government’s Homes for People action plan reflects an increasing awareness of the importance of supply. We need all levels of government to continue to focus on solving our market housing crunch, so we do not return to the high-pressure markets of the recent past.”

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in March 2022 was $1,387,200. The benchmark value for the same home in March 2023 decreased by 10.9 per cent to $1,236,200, down from February’s value of $1,247,200. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in March 2022 was $616,400, while the benchmark value for the same condominium in March 2023 decreased by 9.1 per cent to $560,300, down from the February value of $568,200.

Winter real estate market wraps with improved consumer confidence and more stable pricing

A total of 460 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this February, 35.9 per cent fewer than the 718 properties sold in February 2022 but a 65.5 per cent increase from January 2023. Sales of condominiums were down 39.7 per cent from February 2022 with 161 units sold. Sales of single family homes decreased 28.8 per cent from February 2022 with 220 sold.

“Last month we talked about the optimism building in the local market that our REALTORS® saw, and now we can see it in the market statistics,” said Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Graden Sol. “We can confirm the return of buyer confidence by the increase in sales through the late winter. The market is seeing some positive headwinds as we move into springtime, which is traditionally the busiest market for home sales. Inventory levels are starting to increase, a welcome trend when compared to the record lows of last year. We’re also seeing a stabilization at some price points and properties that are priced in accordance with current market conditions are selling at a good pace.”

There were 1,809 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of February 2023, an increase of 4 per cent compared to the previous month of January and a 113.1 per cent increase from the 849 active listings for sale at the end of February 2022.

“The market today is different than we have seen in recent years,” adds Sol. “There’s plenty of demand from buyers, and we are still low in inventory, but there are opportunities in a less pressurized environment for consumers to get into a new home. Most buyers will find they have more time to view homes, make decisions and do their due diligence in this somewhat more relaxed market. Of course, we are heading into a new season which is typically very active. The statistics in this report reflect what happened last month. Prudent buyers and sellers will seek the knowledge of their Realtor to determine the up-to-the-minute conditions and how to best navigate the market.”

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in February 2022 was $1,321,400. The benchmark value in February 2023 decreased by 5.6 per cent to $1,247,200, down from January’s value of $1,251,100. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in February 2022 was $580,900, while the benchmark value in February 2023 decreased by 2.2 per cent to $568,200, down from the January value of $578,300.

A slow start to the year may not foretell the future for the Victoria housing market 

A total of 278 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this January, 41.4 per cent fewer than the 474 properties sold in January 2022 and a 13.1 per cent decrease from December 2022. Sales of condominiums were down 46.3 per cent from January 2022 with 101 units sold. Sales of single family homes decreased 33 per cent from January 2022 with 120 sold.

“If you’re looking at the statistics, this January was one of the slowest we’ve seen on record,” says 2023 Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Graden Sol. “However, we did see a mid-month surge in activity as buyers seemed to regain confidence after the rapid interest rate increases of last year. It may be that consumers are moving past the market shock of the rate increases and economic uncertainty and that our market is regaining its equilibrium. What the data doesn’t show is the optimism that many of our REALTOR® members are noting from their buyers and sellers, who remain active viewing homes and making offers. Interest rates, continued low inventory and the greater economic situation in our area will determine what our early spring market will look like.”

There were 1,739 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of January 2023, an increase of 3 per cent compared to the previous month of December and a 133.7 per cent increase from the 744 active listings for sale at the end of January 2022. 

“Despite the slower start to the market in January, and our constrained inventory levels, some consumers still found themselves in multiple offer situations, particularly on the types of properties that represent the crucial missing middle segment of our market. The Victoria City Council voting to move forward with their missing middle housing program is a great step in the right direction when we are considering how low inventory has impacted the attainability of housing in the CRD,” adds Sol. “But this is one step in a marathon of work to be done to increase housing opportunities to meet our community’s short- and long-term needs. Each municipality must keep their focus on adding gentle density where they can so that we do not face another swift increase in values when our market demand increases again.”

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in January 2022 was $1,296,600. The benchmark value for the same home in January 2023 decreased by 3.5 per cent to $1,251,100, down from December’s value of $1,283,600. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in January 2022 was $561,300, while the benchmark value for the same condominium in January 2023 increased by 3 per cent to $578,300, up from the December value of $574,300.

Review the January 2023 Statistics Package here.

The release and the full statistics package will be posted to the VREB website at www.vreb.org/current-statistics later this afternoon.

The 2022 Victoria real estate market year in review

A total of 320 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this December, 26.9 per cent fewer than the 438 properties sold in December 2021 and a 16.7 per cent decrease from November 2022. Sales of condominiums were down 38.2 per cent from December 2021 with 94 units sold. Sales of single family homes decreased 24.6 per cent from December 2021 with 156 sold.

A grand total of 6,804 properties sold over the course of 2022, 32.3 per cent fewer than the 10,052 that sold in 2021. 2022 sales came closest to 2014’s sales year when 6,698 properties were sold.

“We began the year with record low inventory, and with higher than average sales,” says 2022 Victoria Real Estate Board President Karen Dinnie-Smyth. “And then the market changed on a dime. Interest rate increases through the remainder of 2022 signalled the end of low-cost borrowing and pushed buyers to the sidelines. Each time interest rates went up, market activity slowed. As we head into 2023, we continue to see the cost of moving and borrowing money undermine demand. Slower sale activity has resulted in inventory levels rebounding from historic lows, which means there are more opportunities for buyers in our market this year than in recent years.”

There were 1,688 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of December 2022, a decrease of 20 per cent compared to the previous month of November but a 158.9 per cent increase from the 652 active listings for sale at the end of December 2021.

“The new year begins with the federal government’s ban on foreign buyers,” adds President Dinnie-Smyth. “This is a disappointing politically motivated action in the theme of government trying to slow demand, rather than addressing the more lengthy and less politically popular process of building more housing supply. The cost of housing is unlikely to be affected by this ban because we know from the government’s own data that foreign buyers represent only a handful of transactions in our region in recent years. At the provincial government level, legislation began today for the cooling-off period, now referred to as the Home Buyer Recission Period. The Victoria market has already cooled off, which leaves this legislation at least a year out of date and toothless in terms of public protection, as standard condition terms are often longer than the three-day legislated term. Victoria REALTORS® support policies that provide housing that British Columbians can afford, and we are pleased to see some of our municipalities considering innovative builds that can help with this. Will 2023 be the year that the housing supply chain will be front and centre on all levels of government agendas? If we fail to encourage new development now, we will have another supply shortfall in an upcoming market cycle which will lead to pressure on pricing. New government rules further complicate real estate transactions – so if you are buying or selling in 2023 - be sure to call your favourite Realtor for guidance.”

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in December 2021 was $1,262,600. The benchmark value for the same home in December 2022 increased by 1.7 per cent to $1,283,600, down from November’s value of $1,307,100. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in December 2021 was $544,100, while the benchmark value for the same condominium in December 2022 increased by 5.6 per cent to $574,300, down from the November value of $587,800.

Read the statistics package here.

The release and the full statistics package will be posted to the VREB website at www.vreb.org/current-statistics.